CMA could tell you who the next crunch victims are!
I came across an interesting firm recently – Credit Market Analysis, are part of the massive CME Group. These guys work in the exotic world of Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and provide information, in the form of default probabilities, that gives an indication of who might be the next victim of the crunch.
A default probability essentially gives you a percentage chance of a firm or a country going bust over 5 years. McDonald’s for example has only a 2.6% chance of default- so this looks like a safe bet compared to Clear Channel Communications which has a 79.5% chance of going bust sometime in the next 5 years
So if you are a private investor, or if as part of your business you extend significant credit lines to other firms then it may be worth talking to CMA to see if any of the assets in your portfolio look like they need their last rites read.
Check out their site for more free data www.cmavision.com/market-data.
Related links:
- Credit Flux – Clear Channel continues to rally ahead of improved results.
- The Klaus Kneale Pink-Slip List (P-SL) for January 2009.
- Clear Channel Communications Inc. lay off 1500 today.
- Bad news for at least 18 companies or 21000 jobs.
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